iscover
I don’t think it’s any secret the HR recruitment market has been running hot. We’ve seen a staggering movement of people in Australia this year. HR skills and advice has never been more valued by organisations, and this has led to an opportunity-rich market. In 2023 we expect this to continue, and demand will remain strong, underpinned by four key trends.
The four trends that we predict are:
- low unemployment and ongoing competition for talent;
- risk management and planning the workforce of the future;
- digitisation and the continuing rise and use of metrics; and
- industrial relations and wages pressure.
With these trends, and all the rapid changes in the market, let’s face it: which CEO would not value a fully staffed HR team?
After strong growth in 2022, now a pause
The last eight quarters have been frantic, and it’s been a hot hiring season, however, nothing lasts forever. The reality is that the market has paused for breath and the last federal budget signalled the pause is very much material. Why?
The increase in the cost of living, inflation, and interest rates have all conspired to flatten the excitement curve, and pessimism is building and now dominating the conversation as we end the year.
We have seen a small but real decrease in the rate of HR jobs advertised on SEEK (for October 2022). Nationally, the decrease was 2.8 per cent. While this speaks to a gentle downturn in HR jobs advertised, I think the reality on the ground was much more obvious.
Looking towards 2023
Looking ahead to next year, my view is that we will face the following pressures and opportunities.
Interest rates and inflation
Inflation pressures will top-out earlier than expected in 2023, caused by the ice bath provided by the federal Treasurer on Budget Day earlier in October, just as they are apparently doing in the US right now. That will have a knock-on effect, in that interest rates may level out earlier, too, and the expected body blow to consumer spending in 2023 may not necessarily materialise.
However, let’s see how we go with the promised energy price management. The federal government has been making positive noises suggesting measures are being considered which may shelter the public from the more extreme impacts of the energy price increases. At the time of writing, nothing has yet been confirmed.
Improving throughout 2023
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. I think mid next year there will be a realisation that Australia’s economic indicators are not as bad as we thought they would be; the United States will be coming out on the other side of the economic storm and China will eventually open up (following COVID-19 impacts) and start investing and buying things from Australia again. These factors will combine to minimise the negatives in the Australian economy which will result in us managing a growing economy again, reigniting the “war for talent”.
Therefore, management of change and the drive to digitise and simultaneously humanise, will mean HR people will again be highly sought after by organisations looking to hire.
My prediction is that early February 2023, we will see the pace of recruitment pick up significantly after the Christmas/New Year holidays, and by the time Easter comes around, we will see a strong return to organisations scrambling for talent.
I don’t want to overstate this prediction, there is so much yet to be determined. But HR is a great career, its practitioners are in relatively short supply, and the underlying economic fundamentals and organisational trends are compelling.
Note from the editor: This article was written before the announcement of government intentions to intercede regarding energy prices, as ABC News reported in: Coal and gas prices to be capped as national cabinet strikes deal.
RELATED TERMS
The practice of actively seeking, locating, and employing people for a certain position or career in a corporation is known as recruitment.
Shandel McAuliffe
Shandel has recently returned to Australia after working in the UK for eight years. Shandel's experience in the UK included over three years at the CIPD in their marketing, marcomms and events teams, followed by two plus years with The Adecco Group UK&I in marketing, PR, internal comms and project management. Cementing Shandel's experience in the HR industry, she was the head of content for Cezanne HR, a full-lifecycle HR software solution, for the two years prior to her return to Australia.
Shandel has previous experience as a copy writer, proofreader and copy editor, and a keen interest in HR, leadership and psychology. She's excited to be at the helm of HR Leader as its editor, bringing new and innovative ideas to the publication's audience, drawing on her time overseas and learning from experts closer to home in Australia.
